• Median Albuquerque home prices dropped a hair to $359,000 in September
• New listings in Albuquerque dropped to 1,010
• Closed sales fell by a whopping 15.6% to 698 homes sold
• Pending sales rose a skosh to 834 homes in escrow
• Affordability creeped up to a frustrating 88
• Inventory rose a bit to 1,841 available homes

Are These Albuquerque Metro Housing Stats Accurate?

OK, yes and no. Median Albuquerque home prices rose, actually, depending on how you look at it.

Residential real estate statistics reported in the news, here in Albuquerque or nationally, often compare the current month, in this case September, to the prior month. So, comparing August to September yes, these stats are accurate.

But month to month comparisons in a seasonal market can be misleading. Albuquerque Metro home sales are most definitely a seasonal market, with price spikes often coming in the late spring or early summer. Inventory spikes also typically happen in that period.

Home prices tend to tail off toward fall and winter. That’s in part because the nicest homes sell in spring and summer and options are often lower quality at the end of the year.

It can be more useful to compare a particular month to the same month in earlier periods – last year or over the course of a few years. Doing it that way yields these bullet points:

• Median Albuquerque home prices rose a skosh to $359,000 in September
• New listings in Albuquerque rose to 1,010
• Closed sales fell a significant -9.6% to 698 homes sold
• Pending sales rose a whopping 26.2% to 834 homes in escrow
• Affordability creeped up to a frustrating 88 (OK, no change)
• Inventory rose sharply to 1,841 available homes

I’m going to lean into these numbers. Not because I’m a glass half full guy, but because comparing historical numbers makes sense. It’s more illustrative of the Albuquerque housing market over time. Same with the national market.

September Median Home Price Levels

The Albuquerque Metro median detached home price was $359,000. That’s a bit higher, just over 1%, than last September’s $354,945. And yes, it is indeed about half a percent lower than the $361,000 median we saw this August.

As I reported in my August market blog that beats the national numbers. Realtor.com reports September home prices dipped about 1% compared to last September. They point out again, price per square foot is up somewhat. That suggests buyers are intentionally buying smaller homes as a cost saving measure.

I looked at our square foot numbers here in Albuquerque Metro. Comparing August & September of 2023 to 2024 I see no appreciable difference in size. In 2023 the median square footage of a sold home was 1,822. This year it was 1,812. Smaller, but not by a significant amount.

For the year through September 2024, Albuquerque area home prices were up 4.3%. The median year-to-date single family home price in Albuquerque Metro was $359,990. That’s no change over what we saw through August and I’m suspicious the number is incorrect. It may be updated in a week or two.

September also saw mortgage rates stay down in the low to mid 6% range. That helped housing affordability in Albuquerque inch up to 88. The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) indicates whether the typical buyer makes enough money to buy a home. It’s a measure that compares median income to median home price. An 88 means the typical Albuquerque buyer has 88% of  the income needed to buy the average home. 88 is not a good number. The ideal is 100 or higher. Still, it’s a nice improvement over last September’s 80 and this August’s 85.

You can read or download the full September report here.

Albuquerque Housing Inventory Climbs

Albuquerque Metro had an average of 1,841 homes on market in September. That’s a 24% rise over September 2023 (1,485 homes) and a high point for 2024. It’s also higher than any month in 2023. That higher inventory may help keep prices level moving into fall. Good for buyers and a push for sellers, who often are looking to buy something else.

New listings are up 8% over last September at 1,010. In fact, for the year to date new listings are also up 8% over the same period last year. There is pent up need for sellers to sell and some of them may well have stopped waiting for mortgage rates to come down.

September Sees Fewer Closings, more Pending Sales

Closed sales dropped 9.6% in September over last year. For the year to date, sales are down by a slight 1%. 698 single family homes closed sale in September compared to 772 closings last year. For the year to date we closed 6,719 homes compared to last year’s YTD sales of 6,793.

On the other hand, 834 homes went into escrow this September, a nice jump over last September’s 661 pendings. We also saw a bump in pendings YTD from 7,014 through September in 2023 to 7,132 this year. That’s up 1%

More homes on the market and improved mortgage rates are unlikely to push prices lower, however. As we move into fall and see the election cycle ramp up it’s unclear how the market will respond. Stay tuned –

– Joe LaMastra, RealABQ Real Estate, October 10, 2024

• Median Albuquerque home prices leveled out at $361,000 in August
• New listings in Albuquerque also level out at 1,075
• Closed sales fell by 7.4% to 827 homes sold
• Pending sales also fell by 4.3% to 829 homes in escrow
• Affordability creeped up to a still terrible 85
• Inventory rose sharply to 1,751 available homes

August Median Home Price Levels Out

The Albuquerque Metro median detached home price was $361,000. That’s a bit higher, just under 1%, than last August’s $357,690. Since many August closings were homes that went into escrow in June and July, a main driver of that leveling is certainly the increased inventory of available homes we saw in early summer. Quite a contrast with July’s numbers, which saw us hit almost a record high.

That’s also a hair better than the national numbers according to Realtor.com. They report August home prices actually declined about 1.8% compared to last August. They point out price per square foot is up somewhat, suggesting buyers are looking for smaller, lower priced homes. I don’t have a clean number to refer to in ABQ at this point on home size.

For the first eight months of 2024, Albuquerque area home prices were up a solidly unremarkable 4.3%. The median year-to-date single family home price in Albuquerque Metro was $359,990.

Since August also saw mortgage rates fall gently into the 6% range, housing affordability rose slightly, from a very poor index of 80 in July (and 80 in August 2023) to 85. Still a hard number for buyers, but a positive trend.

You can read the full report here.

Inventory Climbs

Albuquerque Metro had an average of 1,751 homes on market in August. That’s a 28.7% rise over August 2023 (1,361 homes) and the highest inventory number in 2024. It’s also higher than any month in 2023. Available inventory in 2023 peaked in October, with 1,406 homes available on average throughout ABQ metro.

Having said that, we saw only 1,075 new listings come on market in August, essentially the same as August 2023. That tells me sellers may be holding back somewhat. Maybe even waiting for September’s interest rate adjustment by the Fed to see where things land.

We may also be seeing the market take a deep breath before the November elections.

August Sees Fewer Closings and Pending Sales Drop

Closed sales dropped 7.4% in August over last year and held steady over the first eight months of 2024. We closed 827 single family homes in August compared to 893 closings August 2023. In the first eight months of 2023 ABQ Metro closed 6,021 home sales while year-to-date this year we’ve closed 6,010 homes.

There was also a drop in contracts this August with 829 homes going into pending status. Last August saw 866 homes go into escrow. That’s a decline of 4.35.

What’s this mean as we head toward Fall? Hard to say, of course. Mortgage rates have dropped into the low 6% range. That followed bond rate adjustments that have come in anticipation of the upcoming Fed rate cuts, so there’s a very good possibility some buyers are timing the market and mortgage rate cuts.

As Albuquerque home buyers realize the mortgage rates cuts have already taken hold, there could be a nice spike in buyer activity. If buyers are fortunate, we could see a spike in selling, too, as sellers loosen up and make their own moves.

– Joe LaMastra, RealABQ Real Estate, September 10, 2024

• Median home price was $370,305
• New listings up 9% over last July
• Closed sales up 9.7% over last July
• Total available inventory 1,623 detached homes

July Median Home Price Just Under Record

The Albuquerque Metro area saw a median home price of $370,305 for detached homes. That’s a skosh under May’s all time record median of $372,750. The high price in 2023 was in June, at $363,500, for perspective.

Because of high prevailing mortgage rates, that near record median drove the housing affordability index down to 80. That’s a hair better than May’s 78 index, but just about as low as it’s been in the last 12 months. That means the median income in ABQ Metro is 80% of what’s necessary to qualify for a mortgage. Not a good number.

You can download the entire report here.

July Sees More Sales at a Slower Pace

Clearly, homes in the Albuquerque area were about as expensive as they’ve ever been this July, but that didn’t reduce sales much. Closings were up 7.6% over last July and up a hair year-to-date at .4% above the same 7 month period in 2023.

That said, the higher inventory numbers seem to have slowed the market a bit. Homes were on market 29 days in July, 38% slower than the 21 days they spent on market last year. That gave us an absorption rate of 2.2 months.

So, buyers are out there and eager to buy, even at these high prices and rates. Sellers are hearing the strong numbers and sometimes setting prices above what the market will bear. That’s what’s adding to the days on market.

If you are interested in more focused numbers for your own neighborhood or one you may be interested in, please reach out to me and I’ll be happy to send you a no obligation report.

– Joe LaMastra, RealABQ Real Estate, August 15, 2024

Albuquerque real estate market, short-term rentals (STRs) can impact your house’s marketability. Let’s delve into their role and impact:

1. Housing Crisis and STRs:
   • Albuquerque is currently grappling with a housing crisis. As our population grows, safeguarding our limited housing stock for local families and future homeowners is crucial for long-term prosperity.
   • While STRs contribute to the city’s economy, it’s essential to prioritize local community members who host these rentals. Striking a balance between tourism and housing availability is vital¹.
2. Maximizing Access for Locals:
   • Shelter is a basic necessity, and an adequate housing supply is integral to equity, public safety, workforce stability, and economic development.
   • The city aims to:
     • Remove barriers that encourage repurposing properties into more long-term housing.
     • Mitigate excessive utilization of potential permanent dwelling units as STRs.
     • Prioritize residents’ dire need for available housing by establishing reasonable limits¹.
4. Proposed Changes:
   • The proposed changes include:
     • Requiring all STR units to have a local property manager available within 20 miles to address maintenance and security concerns.
     • Limiting STR permits to three per natural person.
     • Capping the citywide STR permits at no more than 1,200 based on the current monthly average of active STRs.
     • Increasing civil penalties for non-compliance with the ordinance¹.
5. Local Perspectives:
   • Some city councilors emphasize the need to protect existing housing stock and ensure access to safe, stable homes for residents and future residents².
   • These measures aim to strike a balance between economic benefits and housing availability, fostering a healthier housing market in Albuquerque.

Albuquerque is currently a seller’s market, according to an analysis by Knock, a home loan company. In fact, it ranks as the 10th best market for sellers. The forecast indicates that Albuquerque will continue to be a seller’s market for the next year. Despite nationwide shifts favoring buyers, Albuquerque still experiences a shortage of homes, contributing to its seller-friendly conditions. Affordable homes, first-time home markets, and attached condos remain particularly favorable for sellers. However, mid-level homes within the $450,000 to $700,000 range may offer opportunities for buyers, depending on location. Home prices are expected to continue increasing, so prospective buyers should explore special programs and consider assumable loans to make homeownership more affordable¹.

For more detailed insights into the Albuquerque housing market, you can refer to the Albuquerque Housing Market Tracker, which provides weekly updates on trends, inventory changes, and price movements². Overall, the current data suggests a well-balanced market, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers³.