UNM home sales continue to struggle with the winter blues, showing declines in both unit sales and the median price of a home over last February and declines in both the average (mean) and median price for the first two months of 2015 (YTD) compared to the first two months of 2014.
It’s not clear why this perennial powerhouse of the Albuquerque real estate market is struggling and Lisa and I doubt it will continue to stumble for long, but the stats are notable. Unit sales are down 24% for February over last and an even more striking 34.62% for the first two months of 2015 over the same period in 2014. It’s possible the drops in enrollment at UNM, a main driver of sales in the area through student (or their parents), instructor and admin purchases, is being felt right now. Lack of confidence cuts in all sorts of directions.
While the February average (mean) home price is up 2.32%, on so few sales that number is definitely influenced by the one $500k plus sale that occurred. The median, less affected by top end sales, is down 8.37% for February and both the median and mean prices are down for the first two months of the year.
And while we see the price per square foot of a UNM area home gaining for February, both by mean and median, that square foot price did decline for the first two months of the year. Also, while the high sale is up, the low sales is down for both February and YTD.
We also see the list to sell ratio, the discount buyers get from the list price after negotiation, dipping slightly and down to 95%. That’s not an unhealthy number, but that YTD list to sell of 95.29% lags the general Albuquerque rate of 97.05%. Great if you’re a buyer, but not so hot if you’re a seller – something to take into account on either side of the transaction.
February saw an increase in the time a home in the UNM area stayed on the market, with the median 74 days to contract this February a 15.63% increase over last February, though pace is holding steady YTD.
It’s interesting to note the decrease in list prices along with the increase in active listings. There may be a quantity over quality thing factoring in here and that may have some relationship to some of the current weakness.
In fact, if you look at the pending sales, the homes that went under contract in February, there is a good jump. Thirty six homes pending sale in February is big jump over what was happening last year. It’s very possible all the bad numbers will be wiped out as we move into spring and we’ll know more in another month.
If you’re thinking about selling or buying a home and would like a more specific analysis of a particular area, neighborhood or home, drop us a line and we’ll put one together for you.
– Joe LaMastra, March 26, 2015