So April looked good on the unit sales with 46 homes sold this year as opposed to 42 last April, a 9.52% increase. In fact, year to date (YTD) we see a sharp 23.36% increase in home sales in the UNM area from 107 in the first 4 months of 2015 to 132 homes sold through April this year.
That compares favorably with national trends which show sales of existing homes are up only about 4.9% this April to last and in the west have actually declined by about 3.7%.
But what gives with the prices. We actually saw both mean and median home prices drop in April around UNM with the $228,450 median price this April down 2.79% form last April’s $235,000. For the year the mean price of a UNM area home is down 3.51% from $239,331 in 2015 to $230,927 for the first four months of 2106. The median home price did rise YTD, up 2.21% to $228,450. That says we’re seeing some price strength in the middle of the market, but weakness at the top.
This price trend compares poorly to the nation overall, which saw median price gains of 6.3% ($232,500 this April, $221,500 last), and the west, which saw 4.2% median gains this April over last ($275,000 v. $264,400). The mean price of a home in April was up 4.2% nationally and 4.3% in the west.
So why the soggy performance in the UNM area this April? Has ART already scared off buyers? Doubt it…
Part of the issue was a relatively whopping increase in the number of REOs (foreclosures) that sold in April – five, compared to the one that sold in April of 2015 and only one in the first three months of 2016. In fact, the last time the UNM area saw 5 REOs sell in a single month was March of 2012. My guess is that’s a temporary “glitch” and not likely to continue, in which case we should see prices start to better reflect the low inventory and high demand.
Speaking of which, the UNM area is down by 17.30% in active listings over last April (153 homes available this April v. last April’s 185) and 18.63% fewer listings came on the market this April compared to last. That’s a significant dip and really should start to push prices. Related, only 40 homes went pending in April, down 11.11% from last April’s 45. That could be less demand, or less choice hold buyers back. Hard to say.
There’s no way the lower enrollments at UNM (down 2.00% over last year and 7.25% over the last 5 years), as well faculty and staff cuts and budget issues are not affecting buyer activity and prices, it’s just not clear from the stats exactly how.
If you want more detailed information than my above chart, info on your own neighborhood specifically, or an analysis of your own home’s value, drop me a line.
– Joe LaMastra, Realty One of New Mexico, May 24, 2016