January was tough on home sales in the Near North Valley with fewer sales at lower prices. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers and see if there’s any shine we can put on them.
Overall, 2014 was less than kind to the Near North Valley area as far as existing home sales went and if you review our year end summary you can see that. We saw declining average prices and a bump in REO (foreclosure) sales.
The decline in prices in the Near North carried through to January 2105 with a vengeance, with both average (mean) and median home prices declining by well over 30% over January 2014 and unit sales down to 16 from 21 this January over last. Price per square foot also took a sharp drop this January over last with the median price per square sitting at a anemic $101, down 18.55% over January 2014’s $124.
Homes sold more slowly as well, taking 106 days on average and 86 days on median to go into escrow.
Part of the issue is we still have too many distressed homes on the market in the Near North Valley. January saw 3 REOs sell, a 25% reduction from the 4 that sold in January 2104, but when you consider overall sales are down 24%, sales of REOs remains unchanged from last January. In fact we saw a 28.13% increase in REOs sold in all of 2014 over 2013 to 41 from 32. The REOs we sold in January sold for $53k, $126k and $152k. That doesn’t fully account for the lower sales prices we saw in January, but it sure is a factor.
Looking at the sale price range chart you can see the top end weakness and the trend toward the bottom.
We also see a trend toward increased list prices in Near North Valley homes. That might seem like misplaced seller confidence, but what it really represents is that great sucking sound we’re hearing as buyers hoover up deals on the low end. As those cheap deals disappear, we’re likely to see rising sale prices.
In fact, both active and new listings declined in the month of January. Add a slightly tighter inventory to the disappearance of low priced homes and we might expect to see prices on the upswing in the Near North. A few more month should tell.
If you’re thinking about selling or buying a home and would like a more specific analysis of a particular area, neighborhood or home, drop us a line and we’ll put one together for you.
– Joe LaMastra, February 26, 2015