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Near North Valley Home Sales Summary April 2015

Where we saw some strength in March for sales of homes in the Near North Valley of Albuquerque, April sales lost ground for both numbers and average prices over last year. In fact, year to date (YTD) sales of homes in the Near North Valley are down as well in both price and number. So, what’s going on?

First, you need to keep in mind the tremendous variance in the housing stock in the area. Homes from the very low end of Albuquerque prices up into the higher end are distributed throughout the area. Think million dollar homes tucked into the Bosque west of Rio Grande Boulevard and small two bed one bath workaday homes sprinkled along the commercial/industrial corridor along Second Street.

Further, the relatively low number of sales  (only 62 this year, which is about 15 per month) means a handful of low end or a single high end sale can drastically alter the statistics. That can easily explain swings in median and mean prices for homes as well as square footage.

This is a Table View of Near North Valley Real Estate Sales Statistics for April 2015

Regardless of the effect of varied housing stock on prices, unit sales are down over last year and that’s concerning. I’m puzzled about the lack of interest. The graph below shows the sales trend in the Near North Valley since the peak of the market in 2004:

A chart of Near North Valley Home sales by year from 2004 through 2015 showing the peak in 2006, decline and recovery, with a slight regression in 2015

Looked at over the course of the last dozen years, 2015 shows the third best number of sales since the recovery, but those 62 sales are still running against the trend in Albuquerque real estate sales, which has 2105 through April 30 as the strongest year so far since the bottom. That’s more than I want to get into here, and I’ll run a seperate blog post on that later.

The fact that foreclosure (REO) and short sales are down should lead to an upward price trend and we’re not seeing that. Are high end buyers looking to other parts of town? That would be one conclusion, as would be the idea that buyers in the Near North Valley are simply seeking bargains these days.

This is a Table View of Near North Valley home sales by price range for April 2015

A look at the sales distribution chart above muddies the waters slightly. We see only one sale this April below $100k and six sales below that threshold in April of 2014. We see twelve sales between $100k and $250k this April and only seven in April 2014. So far so good, right? But above $250k we have only 4 sales in April of 2015 and eleven sales in April of 2104, including one above $1m. That’s enough to skew things nicely.

This is a Table View of Near North Valley home listings by price range for April 2015

That’s also likely why, if you look at the above chart of active listings (which includes the 38 homes that are under contract as of the end of April, but not yet closed) you see essentially declining inventory in the under $250k price range, and more homes for sale over $250k. As those pending sales close out, we’ll see where they come from price-wise and how that might alter the numbers in May and June.

If you’re thinking about selling or buying a home and would like a more specific analysis of a particular area, neighborhood or home, drop us a line and we’ll put one together for you.

– Joe LaMastra, May 26, 2015

 

  • Joe LaMastra

    Joe LaMastra
    (505) 506-6866
    200 Broadway Blvd NE
    Albuquerque NM 87102

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